Deflation: Current and Historical Perspectives by Richard C. K. Burdekin, Pierre L. Siklos

By Richard C. K. Burdekin, Pierre L. Siklos

Until eventually lately fears of deflation appeared not anything greater than a relic of the good melancholy. besides the fact that, starting within the Nineteen Nineties, many times falling shopper costs have emerged in Japan, China and in different places. Deflation can also be a unique risk in a few of the significant euro region economies, in particular Germany, and emerged as a priority of the USA Federal Reserve in 2003. Deflation can be worse than inflation not just as the genuine burden of debt rises but additionally simply because organisations could confront emerging actual wages in a global the place nominal salary tension prevails. This quantity explores a few key subject matters relating to deflation together with: (i) how monetary brokers and coverage makers have answered to deflation, (ii) the hyperlinks among financial coverage, items expense hobbies, and asset cost routine, (iii) the effect of deflation below varied financial coverage and trade price regimes, and (iv) inventory industry reactions to deflation.

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The authors also provide a rich body of evidence on the beliefs and expectations espoused by economists and policy makers over the course of 18:34 P1: GDZ/FFX P2: GDZ/FFX QC: GDZ/FFX 0521837995c01 CB715-Burdekin-v4 T1: GDZ Fears of Deflation and the Role of Monetary Policy April 22, 2004 23 these deflationary episodes. The importance of uncertainty is clearly demonstrated, and the authors assess to what extent the deflations were unanticipated by contemporary observers and market participants. Part 2: Deflation and Asset Prices In “Boom–Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy,” Michael Bordo and Olivier Jeanne provide a theoretical perspective on whether it is appropriate for monetary authorities to pay attention to the movements of asset prices in charting their policy.

By that time, at least one member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan was seriously contemplating the possibility of a deflationary spiral (Takebe 2001a, 2001b; Bank of Japan 2001). WHAT IS DEFLATION ANYWAY? HISTORICAL AND INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES Deflation occurs only when there is a general fall in some aggregate price level. As several observers have pointed out, however, this does not preclude the possibility of relative price changes wherein some components of the price level fall while others keep rising.

The authors’ analysis underscores the peculiarities of the Italian Great Deflation in relation to deflations elsewhere. S. experience over the same period. The authors undertake an empirical analysis of the nominal and real exchange rate appreciations of 1927 and 1931–1933, the second of these episodes following the exit of Britain and the United States from the gold standard. The authors also compare the Italian experience in the 1930s to the disinflationary program of the late 1980s and 1990s.

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